საინფორმაციო-საკომუნიკაციო სისტემების საიმედოობის შეფასების სამხედრო აქტუალობა და მათემატიკური მოდელირება

Abstract

In the contemporary digital environment, the reliability and resilience of information and communication systems (ICS) represent a critical prerequisite for national and military security. The growing intensity and sophistication of cyber threats—particularly malware-based attacks—significantly challenge the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of sensitive information resources. Due to the complex and dynamic behavior of malicious code, traditional assessment approaches frequently fail to capture the temporal characteristics and probabilistic nature of cyberattack scenarios. This article presents a mathematically grounded methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of antivirus defense mechanisms in ICS, with a particular emphasis on military-oriented infrastructures. The study develops formalized models describing seven types of security-violation scenarios associated with malware activities and proposes a unified probabilistic indicator for assessing timely response to viral threats. The enhanced modeling framework incorporates alternative events, uncertainty factors, and temporal dependencies—including threat emergence, detection, and response intervals—which existing simplified models often ignore. Experimental simulations demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves the accuracy of effectiveness assessments, eliminating the 32–58% overestimation commonly observed in conventional models. The research also identifies the most critical adversarial procedures influencing response efficiency and formulates targeted recommendations for strengthening military cybersecurity capabilities. The findings contribute to the development of scientifically substantiated strategies aimed at increasing the reliability and resilience of ICS against modern malware-driven threats.